What are the Chances of That?: How to Think About Uncertainty
- Length: 384 pages
- Edition: 1
- Language: English
- Publisher: Oxford University Press
- Publication Date: 2021-10-02
- ISBN-10: 0198869029
- ISBN-13: 9780198869023
- Sales Rank: #1449464 (See Top 100 Books)
Chance fills every day of our lives and affects every decision we make.
Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time.
Elliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There’s discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, What are the Chances of That? is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected – through chance.
What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five “dualities” that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.
Cover What Are the Chances of That?: How to Think About Uncertainty Copyright Dedication Preface Writing about uncertainty during a pandemic Contents Introduction: Living in an Uncertain World Sucker bet or sure thing? A matter of chance; a matter of life or death Chance is everywhere Thinking about uncertainty Five dualities Individual–Collective Randomness–Meaning Foresight–Hindsight Uniformity–Variability Disruption–Opportunity What this book is not, and what it is Talking about chance Representing chances Notable chances ‘Chance’ Answer to: Sucker bet or sure thing? Part I: Pure Chance Chapter 1: The Roll of the Dice Another sucker bet? It’s all in the game What is probability anyway? Pure chance in the casino Sarah plays roulette Roulette systems Paul plays craps The mechanics of the game Come-outphase: Point phase: Craps: what are the chances? Craps: chances in the point phase The long run The Gambler’s Fallacy How long is the long run? Welcome to Monte Carlo Answer to:: Another sucker bet? The first duality: Individual–Collective Chapter 2: Reckoning the Chances Count the ways, and then count again How will the bones roll? Risky voyages Quantifying chance Answer to: Count the ways, and then count again Chapter 3: Random Thoughts Can you recognize randomness? Randomness Where does randomness come from? Chaos Quantum Entropy Do the shuffle Entropy as a measure of uncertainty Entropy as information Entropy in thermodynamics Entropy and the arrow of time Creating randomness Useful noise Randomness beacons Pseudo-random Answer to: Can you recognize randomness? Chapter 4: Patterns of Probability How long must he wait? Counting heads Waiting for a six Queueing Continuous distributions Pascal’s triangle taken to the limit? That’s normal The ideal and the approximate Answer to: How long must he wait? The second duality: Randomness–Meaning Part 2: Life Chances Chapter 5: Isn’t That a Coincidence? Signs and portents What’s in a name? Coincidences Synchronicity What makes a coincidence? Typical coincidences How to explain away a coincidence What defines your coincidence? How wide is your circle? How frequent are the opportunities? What are the chances each time? What are the chances of matching numbers? What are the chances of matching dates? What are the chances of matching names? Multiply these together The inevitability of miracles Comments on: Signs and portents The third duality: Foresight–Hindsight Chapter 6: What Luck! How long can your luck last? O Lucky Man! The wheel of fortune Fortune-telling Cleromancy: the I Ching The paradox of fairness Making your own luck Answer to: How long can your luck last? Chapter 7: Taking a Gamble How long have you got? The Gambler It’s all a lottery What are the chances of winning the lottery? In poker, a flush beats a straight Playing the horses What are the odds? Combination bets Is a horse race random? Political prediction markets Unusual wagers Answer to: How long have you got? Chapter 8: Danger of Death Short time to live? Certain but uncertain What did we die of? Plague and fire That was then, this is now When do we die? Survival Childhood mortality Answer to: Short time to live? The fourth duality: Uniformity–Variability Chapter 9: What’s There to Worry About? How long can your luck last now? Panic over pandemic? Individual–Collective Randomness–Meaning Foresight–Hindsight Uniformity–Variability Disruption–Opportunity Calculating the risks Micromorts and microlives Poisons and potions Smoking kills You are what you eat? Screening Unnatural deaths Risks of travel Natural disasters Asteroid strike Murder most foul War and terror So, why worry? Answer to: How long can your luck last now? Part 3: Happy Accidents Chapter 10: Chance Discoveries Rare and valuable Treasure trove Unearthing the past Scientific discoveries The role of serendipity in science Contingency or necessity? Answer to: Rare and valuable Chapter 11: Mixing it Up Fortune favours the bold? Did Amadeus play dice? Improvisation Indeterminate music Xenakis Generative music Not just music Breaking the pattern: Spontaneity Answer to: Fortune favours the bold? Chapter 12: A Chance to Live Even unto the fortieth generation We’re all individuals Genetic chances at the start of life Boy or girl? Mutation Fruit machine Evolution The ones who got lucky My family and other animals Answer to: Even unto the fortieth generation Chapter 13: Random Technology Noisy colours Breaking step Beautiful noise Jittering Dithering Scrambling Searching the solution space Simulating evolution Random logic Answer to: Noisy colours The fifth duality: Disruption–Opportunity Part 4: Taking Charge of Chance Chapter 14: The Weight of Evidence Foul or fair? Proof and probability Crime and probability Burden of proof Inverse probability Thomas Bayes The loaded dice Context makes a difference Meanwhile, back in the courtroom Priors and prejudice Chapter 15: Clarity from Chaos Rest in peace Galileo Meanwhile, back at CERN Asking why? Correlation? Causation? Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? Seeking the cause Answer to: Rest in peace Chapter 16: Sharing the Risk What’s the worst that could happen? Life insurance for astronauts Safety in numbers A friendlier society For those in peril on the sea Lloyd’s of London London’s burning Life and other contingencies A fair premium Too much information? Reinsurance: You’re going to need a bigger pool Holding back the flood Answer to: What’s the worst that could happen? Chapter 17: Shaping the Risk Double or quit? Making your own luck Hedging your bets Willingly accepting greater risk Every option has its price Systematic risk Answer to: Double or quit? Chapter 18: What’s Coming Next? The Prophetess and the Prince Should I take an umbrella? Fitzroy: Easterly 3 to 5, backing south-easterly5 or 6 Chaos Well, should I take an umbrella or not? Watching the political weather 3 February 2020—Eve of the Iowa caucus 5 February 2020—After the Iowa caucus 11 February 2020—Eve of New Hampshire primary 12 February 2020—After New Hampshire primary 1 March 2020—After South Carolina primary 3 March 2020—Dawn of ‘Super Tuesday’ 6 March 2020—After ‘Super Tuesday’ 4 April 2020 8 April 2020 So what? The end is nigh (once again) Thomas Robert Malthus The limits to growth The Population Bomb The ozone hole The Millennium Bug Knightian uncertainty and black swans Environmental destruction and extinctions Nuclear war Climate change Last Chance A sixth duality? Detachment–Engagement Making your choices, taking your chances See Also General Books Websites Part 1: Pure Chance Books Part 2: Life Chances Books Websites Part 3: Happy Accidents Books Part 4: Taking Charge of Chance Books Acknowledgements Index
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