Basic Probability: What Every Math Student Should Know, 2nd Edition
- Length: 180 pages
- Edition: 2
- Language: English
- Publisher: World Scientific Publishing
- Publication Date: 2021-08-06
- ISBN-10: 9811238510
- ISBN-13: 9789811238512
- Sales Rank: #1034507 (See Top 100 Books)
The second edition represents an ongoing effort to make probability accessible to students in a wide range of fields such as mathematics, statistics and data science, engineering, computer science, and business analytics. The book is written for those learning about probability for the first time. Revised and updated, the book is aimed specifically at statistics and data science students who need a solid introduction to the basics of probability. While retaining its focus on basic probability, including Bayesian probability and the interface between probability and computer simulation, this edition’s significant revisions are as follows: Many extra motivational examples and problems New material on Bayesian probability, including two famous court cases New sections on real-world applications of the Poisson distribution New sections on generating functions and the bivariate normal density New chapter on Markov chains, including Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation The approach followed in the book is to develop probabilistic intuition before diving into details. The best way to learn probability is by practising on a lot of problems. Many instructive problems together with problem-solving strategies are given. Answers to all problems and worked-out solutions to selected problems are also provided. Henk Tijms is the author of several textbooks in the area of applied probability. In 2008, he had received the prestigious INFORMS Expository Writing Award for his work. He is active in popularizing probability at Dutch high schools.
Cover Halftitle Title Copyright Preface Contents Chapter 1. Combinatorics and Calculus for Probability 1.1 Factorials and binomial coefficients 1.2 Basic results from calculus Chapter 2. Basics of Probability 2.1 Foundation of probability 2.2 The concept of conditional probability 2.3 The law of conditional probability 2.4 Bayesian probability 2.5 The concept of random variable 2.6 Expected value and standard deviation 2.7 Independent random variables and the square root law 2.8 Generating functions Appendix: Proofs for expected value and variance Chapter 3. Useful Probability Distributions 3.1 The binomial and hypergeometric distributions 3.2 The Poisson distribution 3.3 The normal probability density 3.4 Central limit theorem and the normal distribution 3.5 The uniform and exponential probability densities 3.6 The bivariate normal density 3.7 The chi-square test Appendix: Poisson and binomial probabilities Chapter 4. Real-Life Examples of Poisson Probabilities 4.1 Fraud in a Canadian lottery 4.2 Bombs over London in World War II 4.3 Winning the lottery twice 4.4 Santa Claus and a baby whisperer 4.5 Birthdays and 500 Oldsmobiles Chapter 5. Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Simulation tools 5.3 Applications of computer simulation 5.4 Statistical analysis of simulation output Appendix: Python programs for simulation Chapter 6. A Primer on Markov Chains 6.1 Markov chain model 6.2 Absorbing Markov chains 6.3 The gambler’s ruin problem 6.4 Long-run behavior of Markov chains 6.5 Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation Solutions to Selected Problems Index
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